The first truly significant box office clash of 2025 will see Disney’s live-action remakeLilo & Stitchsquare off against the potentially final film in Tom Cruise’s long-running action franchise,Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning, and they could yield a record-breaking Memorial Day Weekend if history is any indicator. Following in the footsteps of past combo weekends like the “Barbenheimer” and “Glicked” phenomena, Memorial Day 2025 will see “Stitchpossible” set the stage for a summer loaded with tentpoles. After an inconsistent beginning to 2025, the holiday weekend could act as a reversal of fortunes for the domestic box office.
As if the prestige of the two movies at the top of the class weren’t enough, Memorial Day Weekend has a history of producing excellent numbers at the box office. Disney has taken the top slot on Memorial Day Weekend with its live-action remakes before, and Tom Cruise’s critical and commercial juggernautTop Gun: Maverickdebuted on Memorial Day Weekend, in fact. There is plenty of reason to believe that not only canLilo & StitchandThe Final Reckoninglead a particularly deep roster of movies to an excellent box office haul, they could be headed for record-breaking numbers.
Box Office Projections Point To A Record-Breaking Memorial Day 2025
This Particular Movie Combination Could Yield An All-Time High
Early box office projections forLilo & Stitchhave it leading the weekend with an estimated domestic haul of $120 million. However, those numbers may be particularly conservative given that Disney has since gone all-in on promoting the movie. Their confidence in the remake of the 2002 animated classic was apparently well-founded, as it debuted with one of the best Rotten Tomatoes critic scores for any Disney live-action remake at 74%. It seems reasonable to estimate thatpositive word-of-mouth along witheye-popping presale numberscould push it past $140 million in its opening weekend.
2019
$543.6 million
$191.8 million
52%
88%
Beauty and the Beast
2017
$504 million
$174.7 million
71%
80%
2016
$364 million
$103.2 million
94%
86%
$355.5 million
$91.5 million
57%
2010
$334.1 million
$116.1 million
51%
55%
For comparison,A Minecraft Movieopened in April to well over $160 million without the added benefit of a holiday weekend. It obliterated its box office projections and is well on its way to grossing a billion dollars. WhileMinecraftdid have a large and passionate built-in audience due to its video game source material,Lilo & Stitchmay see a similar built-in factor in the nostalgia of millennial parents who grew up with the animated original. While it’s probably ambitious to expect it to matchMinecraft, the $120 million estimate seems far too low.
The largest Memorial Day Weekend domestic box office gross came in 2013 at over $314 million, headlined by the all-genre-covering quartet ofFast & Furious 6,The Hangover Part III,Star Trek: Into Darkness, andEpic.
Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoninghas an early box office estimateset at around $80 million domestically for its holiday-assisted four-day opening weekend.Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part Onedisappointed at the box office to the tune of a $54 million domestic opening, but it lacked the holiday boost and draw of being the franchise’s final entry. Even ifThe Final Reckoningdoesn’t exceed expectations in any way,it would still combine withLilo & Stitchto yield the largest Memorial Day Weekend two-movie combination ever, and could push for one of the highest Memorial Day Weekend hauls, period.
Past Memorial Day Openings Prove Why This Year’s Big Combo Will Be So Successful
Combining A High-Profile Family Film & Four-Quadrant Blockbuster Has Yielded Huge Dividends
On four other occasions, Memorial Day Weekend has yielded two different movies that each grossed at least $60 million domestically. In 2004,Shrek 2and the disaster epicThe Day After Tomorrowboth hit that benchmark, while the phenomenon was repeated in 2005 (Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the SithandMadagascar), 2007 (Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s EndandShrek The Third) and 2011 (Kung Fu Panda 2 and The Hangover: Part II). In each case, the holiday weekend sawa high-profile animated family film go head-to-head with an adult-oriented action spectacle or comedy movie.
The combination ofLilo & StitchandMission: Impossible - The Final Reckoninglines up perfectly with what has worked best in the past on Memorial Day Weekend, as once again a highly anticipated family film will match up with an adult-oriented action spectacle. Both movies carry a nostalgia factor which should help immensely, and while they might not act as a double-feature opportunity like Barbenheimer or Glicked,they will provide near-total cover-all for the moviegoing public from a demographic standpoint,just as the past successful Memorial Day Weekends have.
A Huge Memorial Day Could Save 2025’s Miserable Box Office Start
Several Key Blockbusters Have Disappointed So Far
WhileA Minecraft Moviecertainly helped get things back on track, the first quarter of 2025 was a disappointment from a box office standpoint. While expectations were high for 2025 given that Hollywood was clear of both COVID and the WGA strike of 2023,several key underperformers includingCaptain America: Brave New World,Mickey 17, andSnow Whiteled to a 7% year-over-year decline in Q1 of 2025. Big wins fromLilo & StitchandThe Final Reckoningcould pave the way for the rest of the year, which has a ton of potential hits on the way.
